How to Bet Parlays in Sports

The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.

Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a more impressive advantage over you once you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.

A parlay is not an individual bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you would still make the bet?

A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't have to be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the result of luck to the best extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.

Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.

I knew one bookmaker who was taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.

At first glance, this appeared to be a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after six months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.

The problem for the bookmaker was that the two halves of every parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the initial half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.

Take  Expert sports analysis  between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the first half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the overall game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.

Before you rush out to try this, remember that most off-shore books are far too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. Should they do enable you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will be taken to the cleaners.

There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.

Any game in which the total is less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and boost your win with hardly any increase in risk. This type of bet, however, required that you have an impression privately or the total. Parlaying is another method to boost your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win when you have no opinion.

You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).

In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the overall game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is less likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Because of this, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.

For those who have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.

The closer the posted total is to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but there exists a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.

Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the full total in the same game, because a growing number of are realizing that these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you can consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.

If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.